比制裁渠道收窄更深遠的風險,來自霍爾木茲海峽。中國超過一半的海運原油來自中東,折合逾700萬桶/日,幾乎全部途經這條水道。制裁渠道受損打擊的是折扣灰色來源,霍爾木茲危機威脅的是中國購買的合法主流原油。
Early in October, I took a red-eye flight from New York to Santiago, Chile. I’d been reading a website called Turbli, run by a turbulence-obsessed engineer in Stockholm named Ignacio Gallego-Marcos, who has a Ph.D. in fluid dynamics. Gallego-Marcos had gone through a year’s worth of forecasts from NOAA and the Met Office—the U.K.’s national weather service—and combined them with flight-tracking data from around the globe. In 2025, he concluded, three of the five bumpiest flight routes in the world flew into Santiago.
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What makes this episode especially frustrating is the target. The art publication wasn’t selling prints or producing merchandise. It ran an educational article celebrating works entering the public domain, complete with proper attribution and links to legal resources.
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